Re-Picking the 2009 NBA Draft
- Blake Griffin
- Brandon Jennings
- Tyreke Evans
- Ty Lawson
- James Harden
- Omri Caspi
- Jrue Holiday
- Johnny Flynn
- Ricky Rubio
- Stephen Curry
- Toney Douglas
- Jordan Hill
- Rodrique Beaubois
- Tyler Hansbrough
A few notes:
- I didn’t consider team need, just the merits of the player (exactly like the teams should do).
- Is it too soon? Nope. NBA skills are binary: either they exist or they don’t.
- The most difficult choice was between Jennings and Evans for the spot behind Blake Griffin. Jennings looks to be the most likely player to be part of a playoff winner, but how long can a 165-pound player stay healthy? Ask TJ Ford what happens when insanely fast objects run into power forwards. Is a more explosive and less douche-baggy version of Kenny Anderson really possible over the long term? If so, then he’s Isiah Thomas Jr. in a few years once he learns to defend and a well rounded team organization is put around him; if not, then Evans should be the man because he’s going to be getting lay-up after lay-up after foul shot for a long freaking time.
- The biggest surprises are Lawson and Caspi, both of whom look like playoff-caliber contributors. John Hollinger absolutely nailed Ty Lawson and I think his draft rater needs to be a bigger deal moving forward.
- Laugh all you want at two Knicks being included in this list. Seriously, laugh at me. I deserve it. Nonetheless, Toney Douglas can score and defend; the only frontier is passing. He’s at least a worthy and valuable third guard, possibly more. Jordan Hill, meanwhile, hasn’t gotten the opportunity from the fickle Mike D’Antoni, but it’s difficult to look at the size, the motor and the jump shot and not see some actual reasons for hope. Check out his advanced stats and imagine what he’ll be once he learns to not foul 8 times per 36 minutes. Where else but early in the draft do you routinely get 6-10 contributors? No, he isn’t Brandon Jennings, but that won’t actually be a federal crime until Shoals is named Attorney General for Obama’s second term.
- A few of these players (Hill, Holiday, Beaubois) have flashed good (and unmistakable) physical tools in brief spurts, mostly in garbage time. Nonetheless, NBA garbage time is a pretty good indicator because if it walks like a duck then it is often a duck. Again, ask John Hollinger.
- Psycho T rebounds and gets fouled, all while working his ass off and firing up home fans. That ALWAYS translates. Why wasn’t it valued more?
- Yes, I realize that the previous bullet point expresses an ironic sentiment since I’m ranking Hansbrough a spot lower than he was actually drafted.
- The mock draft I wrote in mid-June seems to have been rendered as a complete and total pile of bull-plop. I’m as surprised as you are.
- Hasheem Thabeet, not listed, would be a great pick in the mid-teens. I actually like him because he really competes. Yes, he’ll get dunked on, get pushed around, look ridiculous, and lose individual matchups. But with some seasoning and the right parameters in place (20 minutes a night, two years from now) he’ll still block lots of shots, get enough boards, and affect field goal percentages in a good way for his team. That’s nothing to sneeze at.
- Dajuan Blair was a tough omission. It was somewhat of a coin flip between him and Hansbrough. I wonder if the somewhat expected good play from Blair means more in practice then it did in theory back in June. It seems to me that people will conveniently forget about his potential knee problems when he’s putting up double-doubles in the Western Conference Finals. Who in the NBA doesn’t have potential knee problems?
- Personally, I think Steph Curry is going to be a better, slower Earl Boykins. That doesn’t seem like such a big deal.
- Jeff Teague was tough omission from the lottery. I like where his career could go because he has skills that can’t be taught.
- Again, please don’t disregard this entire blog post because of the two Knicks. I swear they can each be good. Or maybe I’m just an asshole. Either way, thanks for reading the entire thing.
Tags: 2009 draft, brandon jennings, draft, hollinger
November 17th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
“Who in the NBA doesn’t have potential knee problems?”
Ha! Exactly!
So far this supposedly poor draft class has produced several interesting players that seem to be really helping their teams.
November 17th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
good point, JPR.
if i was an NBA gm i’d make sure that i somehow had a top 20 pick every single year to add a young piece. you increase the odds of hitting a home run with a star and, at the same time, you lessen the possibility of having to go outside the organization for a free agent to fill the need you have at a given time. it’s amazing that people can simply by a pick in the 20’s for cash every year. the fans of the team that sold it should riot like the end of planet of the apes 2.
November 18th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
No love for Taj Gibson?
November 19th, 2009 at 9:04 am
i have lots of love for Taj Gibson. He’s a great listener with nice eyes.
November 21st, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Ty Lawson is turning out to be really good. Blake Griffin is a man beast. I hope he recovers soon!
November 21st, 2009 at 10:43 pm
Now that Byron Scott got fired (an CP sadly injured), Collison and Thonton are showing that they can play. For all the talk of how bad it is, this rookie class is actually pretty good and deep.
Ken, you make a great point about keeping late first round picks. I remember Phoenix selling a pick that ended up being Rondo only to give a big contract to Marcus Banks. The smart GMs seem to be able to find quality role players late in the draft every year.
December 17th, 2009 at 12:57 am
As soon as blake returns in clippers team he’ll prove that he deserves to be the number 1 pick. He’s one of the beast.